Telesis "...an ancient Greek word signifying the achievement of a steady progress towards an objective through careful planning & the intelligent use of resources"
Simulation of biomass foundation to genetic diversity and climate stability
Below is a simulation output (ECMAScript-based online model) which relates soil conditions (fertility), temperature and water availability to the sustainable photosynthsizing biomass. The water absorbed by the roots is used in crop transpiration which releases water into the atmosphere as well as in photosynthsis where water is combined with carbon dioxide to create the plant biomass components in the form of carbohydrate and oxygen which is released to the atmosphere.
6CO2+6H2O=C6H12O6+6O2
Locational-state
This is the process of Carbon absoprtion of importance to stable temperature conditions and a sustainable environment. The term "sustainable environment" under natural conditions, for example Tropical Rainforest, can only be defined in terms of the associated ecology of the biosystems components of soil, water, flora and fauna whose foundation is the vegetal biomass in the same way as marine plankton is the foundation of the fish chain.
These can be described precisely in terms of locational-state. In the case of agriculture, forestry and, indeed, fisheries, the potential viable sustainable output is determined by the prevailing water, soil and and termperature conditions. These states are determined by the location of production sites in terms of logitude, latitude and altitude above sea level.
SEEL management has been involved in simulation systems for more than 35 years making it a permanent feature of SEEL's work since its foundation. Simulation makes use of input-output techniques combined with structural production functions. The production function components provide physical, economic and financial determinants of performance by relating throughput to capacity utilization of capital and process yield (non-rejected output). This output is in turn related to the required inputs. As a result, for the specific process link concerned the input-output relationships represent a production function rather than a simple linear input-output relationship.
Various simulations across this process component can then demonstrate the limits to production and the unit costs attainable. Such information is useful in determining pricing strategies.
The benefits of simulation
The benefits of simulation are that managers can test out different ideas they have as well as learn how their whole production system operates under different conditions. One of the useful aspects of simulation is to run operational throughputs down so that managers understand where there are tipping points where cash flow becomes negative. Exploring these scenarios provides useful information as to the heavy cost items. This helps identify the sensitivity of the corporate performance to specific factors of production. This can lead to secondary decisions, for example, to change the technologies used or to outsource specific operations.
Simulation is very useful for explaining outcomes of different options, for example in groups working on policies. It is a useful technique for summarising the status of a decision analysis groups "state of play of knowledge" so as to ascertain where members feel there is a need for additional information so as to improve the confidence members have of the quality and relevance of the production functions applied.
Not just a pretty picture
The output of econometric models including Structural Production Functions and Seel-Telesis® Program can be organised through an Expert Dialogue System which allows the user to play through simulation scenarios. Each time a simulation run is undertaken results are close to reality within the limits set by the user. As a result this process becomes a very useful learning tool. Indeed, managers and specific operational satff can learn much from simulation as an interface to complex models. Simulation also makes the interaction more logical and intuitive thereby enhancing the level of communication and understanding on the part of users.
Natural resource systems
An important input to precise simulations of natural resource systems, such as the determination of biomass production under natural conditions, man made forests or agriculture, the predominant determinants of appropriate technology are the adaptation of genetic material to site locations in terms of longitude, latitude and altitude. Indeed the state of all variables which influence production are heavily influenced by these locational aspects. Locational-state theory/methodology provides an essential tool in the design of representative and therefore useful simulations. See section on the right.
flora and fauna whose foundation is the vegetal biomass in the same way as marine plankton is the foundation of the fish chain.
