Telesis "...an ancient Greek word signifying the achievement of a steady progress towards an objective through careful planning & the intelligent use of resources"
Below is an output of an Expert Dialogue System (EDS) showing the feasible areas wheat which can be produced employing specific production technologies for a given budget. This system shows options optimised for risk (highest likelihood attainement).
Optimization
SEEL management has been involved in business planning and optimization for more than 35 years. This has included the application of the principal operations research techniques to most classes of optimization. One of the most widely used and successful techniques is linear programming which we have applied to freight, production and assembly systems, feed blending and fibre blending.
Farm planning
We have an extensive experience in linear programming applied to farm planning and have recently (2007) completed a 5 years evaluation of an online farm planning system (Afa-Agronet) which besides running optimized farm plans provides farmers with easy access to over 60 specialised calculators for technical, economic and financial calculations including the determation of equipment operational constraints. The illustrations on this page are from one of the Expert Systems Dialogues on this service.
Lowering financial risks...
Below is an output of an EDS showingthe highest likelihood Gross Margins associated with four wheat production technologies. This provides a basis for calculating returns on investment. This information is useful for rural credit agency budgeting.
The Seel-Telesis® Program provides a means of undertaking non-linear investment optimization for low risk growth.
For policy planning Structural Production Functions provide a means of using simulation is a less-than-perfect information environemnt to evaluate the range of policy decision options. For example, this approach is used in the CESS (Cigány Economy Simulation System) to identify the optimal strategies for generating employment.
Some considerations
Optimization programs work very well in stable production and process environments such as logistics, blending and inventory management. However seasonal weather conditions in rainfed agriculture requires that the associated risks of less predictable input-output relationships be built in to optimization programs. In extreme situations optimization aims at minimized costs of production rather than maximised profits based upon purchased inputs.
Where some aspects of climatic instability can be mitigated by, for example irrigation, it is possible to plan optimised production objectives which turn out to be closer to the eventual outcomes; the main remaining "risk" then becomes the prevailing market price at the time of harvest.
However seasonal weather conditions in rainfed agriculture requires that the associated risks of less predictable input-output relationships be built in to optimization programs. In extreme situations optimization aims at minimized costs of production rather than maximised profits based upon purchased inputs. 