Telesis "...an ancient Greek word signifying the achievement of a steady progress towards an objective through careful planning & the intelligent use of resources"
Decision analysis is a basic element of SEEL's development work. A decision is understood to be an irreversable commitment of use of resources and a decision can only be changed by using yet more resources.
Viewed from this standpoint:
decisions are important
care needs to be taken in arriving at decisions
Decision analysis helps determine whether or not a decision to be taken is the best option in the light of existing information, resources available, levels of understanding of 'structural relationships' or functions and individual priors. Priors are the personal assumptions of decision makers as to the probability of a critical event, within a decision function, occuring within some predefined range of possible values. One objective of decision analysis is to ensure that all relevant information has been accessed and evaluated in arriving at a decision. The aim is to maximise the probability that decision outcomes meet the decision objectives.
Decision analysis cycle - a learning process
Decision analysis, before any decision is taken, can help identify the need for more information on, for example, a critical factor inter-relationships (structural functions) or the range of probabilities surrounding an event. If there seems to be inadequate information upon which to secure a confident assessment then more information might be collected and analysed. This process, the Decision Analysis Cycle is illustrated on the right.
State of the art technology
Decision analysis can help justify proposals for changes in the way resources are used. This may identify different associated technologies and techniques as a means of achieving objectives. Normally to reduce risk in such decisions, proposed solutions tend to consist of the application of state of the art technology in terms of proof of feasibility resulting from existing applications expereince.
Decision analysis applies operations research techniques on a regular basis. It provides a useful forum and formal framework to make transaparent the reasons for using any particular algorithm as well as explaining the outcome of results.
